咖啡或茶

近日買回另一家電，是咖啡磨豆機，以前曾有，後來停玩咖啡送了給人，經過了「見山是山、見山不是山」 兩個階段後，又去到「見山仍是山」，繼續飲咖啡。

查實飲茶和飲咖啡，適量的益處和過量的壞處，是差不多的。近年中國茶的價錢升了很多，來源卻不可靠，相反「來路貨」的咖啡紅茶，價錢沒有升過，質量卻十分可靠。厭喝白開水太淡，那就不如改喝「來路貨」了。

咖啡因少量是有益處，茶鹼多量是有毒，有益的物質，主要是多酚類物質。這裏有些關於多酚的文章很有趣味：

http://polyphenols.wedar.com/article.asp

近事幾則

近一兩星期潛心研習中醫的至高心法 — 經絡，覺得通過經絡推拿按摩、拔罐針炙的治病方式，比煲藥好，所以亦順手把很久沒有用的藥煲丟了。小弟十多年前曾經研習中藥方劑學，後來再兼學營養療法和自然療法的原理後，對中草藥已減少依賴，只備一些急病的中成藥看門口。而西醫，就超過廿年沒有光顧了。

坊間以為中醫就是開中藥方，固然是錯覺，開方治病省時省力易賺錢，所以一定是主流。經絡按摩，還是自己照顧自己比較方便，每天睡前做一陣，不用花錢，瀉火補身全搞定。最不忍睹是有一種所謂「中醫現代化」其實是西醫化的鼓吹，正在為中國寶貴的智慧挖墳墓。幸得中里巴人等高人公開傳授這種中國光輝的醫學文化又得到廣泛注意。

夏天不是攝影天，不是淋死便是晒死，所以也一段時間沒有出動。早幾天日蝕有出動觀察和拍攝，也成功拍到照片，雖然有太空館的濾光片，眼晴也很疲倦，當天沒有精力整理照片和貼相，過了幾天便沒有興緻再搞了。看來我也要再次息影一年半載。玩了相機廿幾年，除了祼女未影過，也沒有甚麼題材未試過，真是很悶了。

家中電器大轉換。丟了儲水式電暖水壺，換了即熱式電水壺，應該較省電。丟了設計惡劣的西施電飯煲，換了電蒸籠，幾方便。濾水器亦轉用了 Brita 濾水瓶，配合電水壺使用是很合適。順便做了一陣家居大清潔大執位，很忙。

股市在跌到萬七邊那一回已經調整完，現時也沒有甚麼補充，一篇舊交已可說明一切： http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/newager_hk/article?mid=648

後市希望可以調整到萬九，但不抱太大希望。

有些朋友總是想著會再大跌，會做雙底，會股災。我只能回應一句：

股災一定會到，人一定會死，地球一定會毀滅 …… 問題係幾時 ？

少看市、多生活

近日很少貼市看價。基本上定調是中港股市已見底，有調整無大跌，而中間的短期走勢很難測得準。現時我認為正是用時間和上落市做調整。有了這個定調，策略便是慢慢地累積股票，然後等一個較長期的升浪再開展。

Dr. Elder Alexander 在 Come into my Trading Room 中說，未見過超過30歲的人可以成功做 daytrader，所以盯住股價上落對於我這年紀的人，不是一件有意義的事，還是看大趨勢較有意義。

如果認為中國推動內需是長遠國策，從這方面選股，便差不多了。

近日比較多玩音樂玩攝影，並看看書。正在看中里巴人的「求醫不如求己」第三冊，並嘗試實踐這種用經絡按摩來保健治病的方法。投資於健康，是較佳的投資。

旋轉女圖測左右腦

這是一幅網上流傳的圖，據說是耶魯大學研究出來的，看見是順時針的話，是用右腦，看見是逆時針的話，是用左腦。

我由第一眼看此圖，都一直是看到順時針轉，直到今晚，才有時看到逆時針轉，甚至間中會看到左右搖擺。很有趣。

你看到的是如何的呢？

最近各板塊走勢

成分股領先的銀行、石油、資源、941都有點弱勢，與環球經濟有關的航運、包裝紙、716等都弱，但內需股就仍然很強，內房和鐵路建設也不差。

這和整個形勢和國策很吻合。

估計大市調整是會來，個別板塊就各有走勢。

鏡頭的保值能力

近月各大名廠的單鏡機鏡頭相繼加價，特別是PENTAX一些菲林時代設計的銘鏡 (FA鏡) 加幅甚鉅，二手價也水漲船高，我手上有兩支便屬此類。由於兩支鏡都是供奉多過使用，便趁價高賣了出去，去盡可以賺一成，由於是相熟影友，收順一些，賺了6%左右，由於也把玩了年半，賺了玩，也算不錯。

一直影友中都有鏡頭保值之說，某程度是真，比起男人其他玩具，起碼貶值程度是較小。

要留意，保值的鏡頭只限原廠鏡頭中的高級貨，日後才會大幅加價，最好是人人稱讚想擁有的銘鏡，有一日停產或傳言要停產，其二手價才會升值，昔日某些銘鏡升了差不多一倍。副廠鏡 (如 Sigma、Tamron) 沒有這回事，平價鏡亦很少升值，但原廠鏡始終二手價比副廠鏡企得硬，蝕得少。

買鏡頭當投資之說，始終是影友自我麻醉的藉口。二手鏡要賣得好價，必須保養得好，無花無霉，最好有盒，這樣要有好的環境空間去儲存，又要小心使用或者只是供奉，期間又沒有利息，也要等很長時間才會大升，還要該鏡到時有機身可用。所以買鏡還是消費玩樂為主，玩厭了賣出去還值錢，算是額外得益。小弟玩相機廿五年經手了超過50支鏡，買賣有賺有蝕，在鏡頭上總消費其實不多，粗略估算只是二萬以下，是十分抵玩。

投資保值，最好還是買股票，一萬幾千，買兩三隻細價股，在牛市中隨時可以漲十倍，又不用打理。

股市作手回憶錄最深刻一段

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 這本記錄20世紀早期最著名的股票炒家 Jesse Livermore 事蹟的名著，我和一些朋友都認為，最印象深刻的是這一段 (在 Chapter 5)，可能是時候溫習一下：

Most let us call'em customers -- are alike. You find very
few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them
money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!
Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To
begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he
never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He
was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.
He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked
the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when
somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very
politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip
turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that
nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It
was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and
could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the
firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could
see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey
behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit
of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin
resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced
into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others,
used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a
friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.
They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he
would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they
had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the
same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and
then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his
fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say
very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,
you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman
wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of
course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the
office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he
rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to
John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an
order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly
three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to
go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold
out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that
tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if
it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of
apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have
just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled
to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So
you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the
original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always
thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even
before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey
gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.
"Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on
the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the
deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic
gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just
sold every share I owned!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively
estimated it at ten thousand shares.
But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!
No! I can't do that!"
:'What?" yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great
trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.
Indeed, I am, sir. But --"
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven
points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I
couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful
himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as
though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of
his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you
do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it
back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to
yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my
dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and
then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked
over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a
stage whisper. "I ask you!"
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on
Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven
points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on
the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when
I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do
you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my
job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when
you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and
panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is
something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I
hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase
your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can
only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I
paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a
second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had
the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he
strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I
began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much
money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.
The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap
was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young
days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself
open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to
resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education
when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on
telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull
market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not
in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that
is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market
and its trend.
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many
years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of
dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that
made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the
market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and
early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right
at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks
when prices were at the very level, which should show the
greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine --
that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be
right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest
things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has
firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally
true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to
trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and
yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time
about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in
Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in
the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not
beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains
they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and
saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his
convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out
was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a
bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that
the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study
general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting
individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for
keeps! Wait until you see -- or if you prefer, until you think
you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of
general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision
to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell
you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things
that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last
eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in
the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate,
enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across
the continent.